Rising Inventory and Loose Supply Pressure Copper Prices, Interest Rate Cut Expectations Limit Downside Room [SMM BC Copper Review]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2510 contract opened at 71,190 yuan/mt and closed lower. During the night session, BC copper initially touched the daily high of 71,340 yuan/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually shifted downward to test 70,440 yuan/mt. After the daytime session opened, prices quickly rebounded and then moved sideways, eventually closing at 70,770 yuan/mt, down 0.17%. Open interest fell to 4,242 lots, a decrease of 456 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 6,059 lots. On the macro front, US nonfarm payrolls in August grew far below expectations, with the prior two months' data revised down by a combined 21,000, further boosting expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, imported copper saw concentrated arrivals, while domestic supply also experienced a slight increase, resulting in a generally loose supply landscape. Demand side, persistently high copper prices dampened purchase willingness among downstream enterprises, with actual demand remaining subdued. Inventory-wise, as of Monday, September 8, SMM's nationwide copper inventories across major regions rose 6,300 mt WoW to 146,900 mt. Current copper prices remain under pressure from fundamental loosening—manifested as ample supply, weak demand, and rising inventories—while heightened expectations for US Fed rate cuts limit downside room, likely maintaining a sideways movement pattern in the short term.

SHFE's most-traded copper 2510 contract closed at 79,650 yuan/mt. Based on BC copper's 2509 contract at 70,770 yuan/mt (post-tax price: 79,970 yuan/mt), the price spread between SHFE copper 2509 and BC copper contracts stood at -320, maintaining an inverted spread that widened from the previous day.